House Misfires On Internet Safety
US House passes bill to restrict social software

The internet itself is social software. The power of the network is the network of people and their ideas it creates. If you take away the 'social networking' tools, what are you left with? Boring one way 'broadcasting' services and a lousy shopping mall that can't include customer product reviews.

The bill doesn't stop social networking sites from existing, but stops people from accessing them from public spaces like the library or schools.

How stupid is that?

andre

Paul Martin has said he will not be leading the Liberals in the next election. This of course means that there will be a Liberal convention to choose a new leader of the party.

Names like Brian Tobin have already come up, but I'm kind of hoping for Belinda Stronach.

Socially progressive and fiscally conservative, Stronach would have a good chance of leading the party to victory. And she's not hard to look at.

I mean come on Canada, wouldn't you want to be known as the country with the hottest leader in the free world?

andre

We may have a new Prime Minister in Canada, but none of the political parties can claim a real victory.

Conservatives:
They managed to pick up more seats, but they fell well short of a majority. Canadians wanted a change, but not radical change. The result of the election also highlighted the source of conservative votes: rural Canada. This is a sociological pattern seen everywhere in the western world. If people live close together (large urban cities) they tend to be more progressive. Where people live farther apart they tend to be more conservative.

Its not enough for the Conservatives to move closer to the centre of the political spectrum. They have to move left if they hope to capture seats in cities like Toronto.

Liberals:
They lost power. A loss can rarely be regarded as a victory.

They did not, however, get blown out completely. Some Canadians may have been frustrated with Liberal scandal, but a great number of them still believe that the Liberal platform is more "Canadian" than the alternatives.

The Toronto Star asks Is religious right poised to set Harper's agenda?.

Good question. The answer, IMHO, is yes.

andre

Just the other day I was saying, "This time around Stephen Harper is mum about [forming a majority government]."

Well, today Harper's lips got a bit looser. He has started to muse about a conservative victory and the jinx may be let out of the box.

The polls had already started to show that conservative support in voter (and seat) rich Ontario was moving away from the conservatives. Fear of a conservative win may just push some more key swing voters further away from Harper and company. And nothing is more frightening than actually hearing Harper say, "I'm gonna win."

The truth is that many Canadians want change for the sake of change. But, at the same time they don't want too much change (and the Conservatives certainly represent 'too much' change). So, for many this election may be about choosing the devil they know vs the devil they don't. Or, they might just vote NDP and give the two leading parties a 'thanks but no thanks.'

In the last election Stephen Harper started speaking about a majority Conservative government when polls indicated that the Conservatives had started to move ahead in the polls. But, a few days later the lead had eroded. It was over. The Conservatives formed the oposition in a minority government - and all fingers pointed at Harper's comments - as if they had 'jinxed' a sure thing.

This time around Stephen Harper is mum about the topic. No matter what the polls have said, Harper has been very quiet on the subject of a majority government lest history repeat itself. And, previously outspoken members of his party have also been very quite (not just about a majority government - quite frankly about anything and everything - lest they slip up and reveal the true agenda of the party). If they just keep quiet....

Well, it doesn't matter what Stephen Harper says or doesn't say. The conservative media in Canada can't control themselves and won't shut up about the possibility of a majority.

Online Rights Canada has a pledge proposed by Michael Geist that basically asks that if as an MP are going to work on copyright law in the Heritage ministry - that you wont accept campaign contributions from "(i) a copyright lobby group, (ii) its corporate members, or (iii) senior executives as well as (iv) a copyright collective".

The problem is that Sam Bulte wont take the pledge - but will take campaign contributions - and its creating a lot of buzz in her Toronto riding - and around the world.

andre

Well, the Liberals have pulled out all the stops and have gone after Stephen Harper in a major way.

Two of the ads I could have written myself. 1 makes reference to the Washington Times article I featured a little while back. The other talks about a speech Stephen Harper made to a group of right-wing nutbars from the states... where he gushes over how great the conservative movement is in America.

But, I'm not sure if the ads will work. I mean I hope to god they do. After all they are all so very true. Stephen Harper wants Canada to be like Bush's America. I think that a lot of Canadians really need to know that before they cast a vote against the Liberals. If they are pissed at the Liberals, they shouldn't cast a vote for the Conservatives just 'to get even.' Instead of giving the Liberals the screwgie they're going to end up fucking themselves... and me along with them.

I think that a recent Washington Times opinion piece accurately describes how happy George Bush might be if Stephen Harper were to win the January 23rd, 2006 election. The piece does a good job of pointing out how Stephen Harper and the Conservative platform shares the current U.S. presidency's view on the world. Pro Iraq war, anti-Kyoto, and socially conservative.

Its true. Stephen Harper couldn't be more like George Bush and the Neo Conservatives if he tried.

If you like that sort of thing Stephen Harper and the Conservative party of Canada is for you. But if you are like 73% of Canadians that have an unfavourable view of George Bush you might want to seriously think about not casting a vote for the conservatives.

That's right. Innovative Research recently polled Canadians finding that 73% had an unfavourable view of the U.S. President. No real surprise there. The shocker is that Bush's dream candidate (Stephen Harper) could form a government a month from now.

A recent SES poll shows that Jack Layton's performance in last weeks debates has helped the NDP leader gain some ground. For the first time since the begining of the campaign Layton has moved to 4th position displacing None as the choice for best PM.

The popularity of Unsure doesn't seem to have wavered as Unsure holds steady in 2nd place behind Paul Martin. Harper is unchanged in 3rd.

Best PM
Martin – 26% (-3)
Unsure – 23% (+10)
Harper – 22% (NC)
Layton – 13% (-3)
None – 9% (-2)
Duceppe - 5% (-2)
Harris – 2% (-2)

Keep checking back for my continued analysis of the campaign and the best PM polling.

andre

How does the United States get away with what it does? How can it do what it does in good conscience? Why does the world turn a blind eye? When will the United States be held accountable?

Harold Pinter asks these questions and others in his Nobel lecture (and indeed offers some answers). But, the real theme is the distortion of reality. What is truth? What is a lie?

A must read.

andre

Harper and Layton continue to slide, but Unsure is making big gains.

Canadians know what they want - and its uncertainty. If the election were held today - and if Unsure could form a party and have candidates run in all ridings, Unsure just might be the next leader of the opposition.

Best PM
Martin - 28% (-1)
Unsure - 22% (+9)
Harper - 19% (-3)
None - 12% (+1)
Layton - 10% (-6)
Duceppe - 6% (-1)
Harris - 2% (-2)

The full story: (From SES Research)

If the election were held Sunday night, it would have likely yielded the exact same result as the previous election. Based on the tracking completed Sunday all three major parties registered the same support as the election in June 2004 (Liberal 37, Conservative 30, NDP 16).

The Bloc as of Sunday night registered 13% support (one point higher than the last election) and the Green Party 5% (one point higher than the last election).

Sunday was a particularly good day for both Stephen Harper and Jack Layton. Their performance scores for Sunday were up while the Paul Martin's daily evaluation slid. Also of note is that the percentage of Canadians who are unsure who would make the best PM has continued

Well, the governing Liberal party of Canada will continue to hold onto power at least until the end of summer.

So says Peter Mackay deputy leader of the Conservatives. Yup, he's read the same polls I have, and the Conservatives know they would have no chance of winning an election even if they did topple the government. So, they'll wait until the political winds change.

Even though they wouldn't want to topple the government, it seems that if Bill C-38 (the same sex marriage bill) would come to a vote the government would fall whether anyone wanted it to or not.

Now this is troublesome to me. MPs have said they would vote against the bill because they are personally opposed to it. Pat O'Brien even left the Liberal party because of his own beliefs on the matter. So, even though nobody wants an election - and even though this isn't about the oppinion or personal beliefs of individual members of parlement - the government would fall on that vote.

Reality check people: Its 2005. 'Marriage' is a label. And, if we choose to use that label to describe two people that share a life with one another - we should have no restrictions on who those two people should be. Everyone IS equal under the law.

A recent poll shows that support for the Conservative Party of Canada is slipping. And this double digit drop doesn't look like a blip.

It was only a month ago that the Conservatives were confident enough in their polling to try and topple the government with the aid of the seperatist Bloq. Their message, "Canadians are ready for a change."

Well, maybe not so much. But, if they are looking for a change, it doesn't appear they are looking towards the far right of center.

National support for the Conservatives now sits at 23%, just 2 points ahead of the NDP.

They say that things change quickly in politics. Much can happen in a couple of days and a month is a life-time. These numbers seem to support that idea.

andre

It occurs to me that I didn't write about the fact that the Government has the confidence of the House.

I suppose its because its such an anti-climax to the events of the past two or three weeks, I didn't even think to write about it.

Well, it happened. Chuck Cadman voted with the government... as did Belinda Stronach... as did the MP that got booted from the Liberals for calling George Bush a Moron. Good for all of us.

The budget has passed and now we can look forward to increased spending on cities, child care the environment... and a whole lot of other things that are good for Canadians. Who says minority goverments are bad things.

andre

Well, a high profile progressive Conservative has crossed the floor and tipped the balence of power in the House.

What balls. What an ambitious move. Here you have Belinda Stonach with less than a year of experience in government - who has already run for the leadership of one party, switching sides and getting a cabinet position (Minister of HRDC)in the current government.

That about does it for killing the budget bill this Thursday.

The government will not fall and the Conservatives have a black eye.

Who knows what the fall out of this will be... Stonach has strong ties to Mike Harris (who's name is often spoken in the same breath as 'jerkface' by many Ontarians) and Brian Mulroney (who's name is often spoken in the same breat as 'dinkus' by many Canadians). And apparently Stonach has a relationship with Peter MacKay (the former Leader of the PC party that made a deal with the Reform Alliance).

She certainly appears to be socially progressive and fiscally conservative - so that fits well with the Liberal party.

Warren Kinsella is an interesting cat. I like cats, but I'm also deathly alergic to them.

Here you have a 70's punk rocker cum journalist cum lawyer cum political advisor cum journalist cum... I don't know what he is now... but anyone that's been involved in all the arenas this guy has can't help but be interesting. (How many people with his resume still take time out to review indie bands of past and present).

Well, just cause he's interesting doesn't mean that he's without flaws. He's an agressive, loud, in your face, take no prisoners kind of guy... and if you read what he has to say about himself I don't think he would deny any of that... and may, in fact, take pride in those charactistics.

Today he wrote:

# Canwest's Grant Robertson has a piece in the Post today detailing the Martinette's outrage that people are saying mean things about them: "Liberal staffers have assembled a list of what the government considers "slanderous allegations" and violations of parliamentary rules made by the opposition over the past three months. The list points a finger at 28 opposition MPs over the course of 17 days in the House -- including 19 Tories and nine Bloc members." What a load of crap. It's okay for them to slander people willy-nilly and violate Parliamentary privilege (cf. Ralph The Mouth Goodale calling Yours Truly "poison" in the House of Commons), but they shriek like banshees when someone does it to them. Sucky babies.

The conservatives are fumbling every single play they make.

Okay - why do the conservatives want to force an election now? They think that public outrage over testimony at Gomery will send votes their way. For weeks they hammered the Liberals in question period over what was going on at the inquiry and by doing so ensured nightly media attention focused on the actual testimony AND question period. A double dose of bad news for the goverment. It was working. The Liberals were taking a beating in the polls.

Then they reach the point of no return and say they will bring down the government as soon as possible. The anouncement came just after the Liberals and NDP reach an agreement over a change to the budget - which in Harpers view at the time was the worst thing he has ever witnessed in his life in the house.

So, having passed the point of no return the Conservatives started doing everything they could to make good on their promise to bring down the government. And in doing so all media attention focussed on what they were up to. And after Tuesday's non-non-confidence vote its virtually the only thing the media was covering.

I always get a kick out of where people are coming from when they visit my site.

A lot of the time I'm surprised that people are actually searching for me... q=andre+molnar... either that or they are searching for a real estate developer in BC that shares my name. (I'm actually more amuzed when journalists that don't do ANY homework e-mail me asking about real estate development - but thats a different story).

Its especially interesting to note WHEN a search was done for my name. Often times its right after I reach out to a fellow netizen by firing off an e-mail to them. It makes sense... they don't know who I am... so whats their first instinct? Google the guy that sent the e-mail. It doesn't take a genius to figure out my name is Andre Molnar when the e-mail is from andre at andremolnar dot com.

Today, I fired off an e-mail to a long time Liberal strategist. And according to the logs 4 minutes later someone is googling my name. Was it him or his staff? Maybe not, but there is a good chance.

SES research has some new polling results out

Check out http://www.sesresearch.com/

Q2 poll shows Liberals at 36% Support, Conservatives at 30%, NDP 18%, Bloq 12% and Green 4%.

Let me put on my pediction cap for a moment.

4% support for Green = 0 seats in the house.
12% support for Bloq = Roughly 50% of the Quebec population = @60+ Seats
30% Conservative support = nothing new especially not in Ontario = @95 Seats
36% Liberal support = Ontario and the East Coast = @125 Seats
18% NDP = About the same as last time = @25 Seats

== Another Liberal minority government with roughly the same ballance of power.

What does this all mean? It means that the conservatives are just plain dumb for trying to bring down the government when there is no hope of gaining ground. The only winners in this whole thing are the seperatists... so one must ask why the conservatives are so hell bent on going to the polls now?

Do they want more seperatists in the house?

And what about their main objection to the government... i.e. Adscam / Gomery / Scandle / Evil Liberal Corruption... Seems that the majority of Canadians